Remember back when beating Oregon seemed like a big deal and a win against Michigan was nothing special?
September is a funny time in college football. What you see is not always what you end up getting. In October, reality begins to set in around the country.
Georgia and Southern California will probably not contend for the College Football Playoff.
Florida and Utah probably will.
Still skeptical about the Gators and Utes? That’s OK. There is still plenty of time for each to collapse. You might not be high on what they will do, but it is getting harder to argue with what they have done.
This week’s AP Top 25 Heat Check is about judging where teams are more than where they might be going (Next game is Saturday unless otherwise noted).
No. 1 Ohio State
Is it too much to ask Ohio State to put a Baylor-style beat down on a Maryland team that was about to have its coach fired?
Next: Penn State.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 2 Baylor
We probably won’t get a good read on the Bears until November, when they face one of the toughest closing schedules in the country. But to be fair, if we are going to hold it against Ohio State for not blowing out underwhelming opposition, shouldn’t Baylor get some credit for doing just that?
Next: West Virginia.
Heat check: Too hot. The Bears are good. Their resume is not.
No. 3 TCU
What the Horned Frogs lack in defense they have been making up with resiliency (and offense). Two come-from-behind road wins should not be taken lightly.
Next: at Iowa State.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 4 Utah
Stock up: Michigan win. Stock down: Oregon win. Seems as if voters are uncomfortable making the Utes No. 1 because they don’t think they will stay there. Heat check doesn’t think they will either, but is willing to deal with that later.
Next: Arizona State.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 5 Clemson
RIP, Clemsoning — and maybe the next person who asks Tigers coach Dabo Swinney about Clemsoning.
Next: Boston College.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 6 LSU
Statement time for the Tigers, who have yet to beat a really good team.
Next: No. 8 Florida.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 7 Michigan State
Right now the Spartans are mediocre on offense and defense — and still unbeaten with a chance to prove their problems are overblown.
Next: at No. 12 Michigan.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 8 Florida
A decisive road win against Missouri was almost as impressive as blowing out Ole Miss at home. The Gators should be the highest-ranked team in the SEC.
Next: at No. 6 LSU.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 9 Texas A&M
The Aggies got a week off to prepare for their next opportunity to score a big win.
Next: No. 10 Alabama.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 10 Alabama
The resume is taking a beating because the teams the Tide has beaten haven’t done much before or after playing Alabama. So for now, have to honor the results of that head-to-head matchup with Ole Miss. But maybe not for much longer.
Next: at No. 9 Texas A&M.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 11 Florida State
RB Dalvin Cook seems determined to give Heisman Trophy voters an alternative to LSU’s Leonard Fournette.
Next: Louisville.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 12 Michigan
The Wolverines have a seven-point road loss to a team that hasn’t lost yet and have crushed everyone else in their path since. You could make a case for them as the best team in the Big Ten.
Next: No. 7 Michigan State.
Heat check: Too cold. Put the Wolverines right behind the Spartans. Maybe even ahead.
No. 13 Mississippi
Since Ole Miss beat Alabama, the Tide has been better than the Rebels. But when it counted most, Ole Miss was better than the Tide and so the Rebels should be ranked higher.
Next: at Memphis.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 14 Notre Dame
The Irish are a bunch of turnovers in Death Valley from making a case to be No. 1.
Next: USC.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 15 Stanford
Beating the Trojans in the Coliseum is not as cool as it used to be.
Next: No. 18 UCLA, Thursday.
Heat check. Touch too hot.
No. 16 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys could have easily lost each of their last three games — but they did not.
Next: Kansas.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 17 Iowa
The best team in the Big Ten West is probably not the 17th best team in the country.
Next: No. 20 Northwestern.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 18 UCLA
The Bruins can make that loss to Arizona State seem like an aberration by breaking a seven-game losing streak to Stanford.
Next: at No. 15 Stanford, Thursday.
Heat check: Tad too hot.
No. 19 Oklahoma
Heat check was high on the Sooners and got burned.
Next: at Kansas State.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 20 Northwestern
The Wildcats still have that nice win against Stanford, which for at least one more week should put them ahead of the Cardinal.
Next: at No. 17 Iowa.
Heat check: Too cold
No. 21 Boise State
The Broncos are a Tanner Mangum miracle from being undefeated and maybe ranked in the top 10.
Next: at Utah State, Friday in by far Boise State’s toughest remaining game.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 22 Toledo
The Rockets are into a comfortable part of the schedule before a difficult stretch run against MAC contenders. They have won their first two MAC games 62-17. Good sign for a team hoping to squeeze into a New Year’s Six game.
Next: Eastern Michigan.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 23 California
The loss at Utah was disappointing for the Bears, but not necessarily discouraging to their outlook. Cal looks like it should be able to hang against a schedule that is about to get really tough. And those road wins against Texas and Washington are looking better.
Next: No. 18 UCLA, Oct. 22.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 24 Houston
The undefeated Cougars are getting some love from poll voters, but you could make the case that Temple and Memphis have better resumes out of the American Athletic Conference.
Next: at Tulane, Friday.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 25 Duke
The competition to be the third-best team in the ACC might not be pretty. How about another AAC team here instead?
Next: at Virginia Tech, Oct. 24.
Heat check: Too hot.
