If you’re reading this, you are probably in the semi-finals of your playoffs. Let’s get you through your Week 16 matchups. This week is going to be tough with seven games of temperatures under 25 degrees, most in a week since 2000. We also have most of the slate playing on today with 10 games, three on Christmas Day and then one Monday Night Game.
Start: Aaron Rodgers @ Dolphins
The Packers travel to the warm climate of Miami to face the second worse defense against the QB. They are allowing 21.8 points to the position per game. The Packers are against the wall and have to win out to have chance at the playoffs. Rodgers has good career on the road with 256 yards and 2 TDs per game.
Start: Geno Smith @ Chiefs
Geno continues to have a Pro Bowl season; he is the #7 Fantasy QB on the season, and he has 19 points per game. First of all, the Chiefs are allowing 20.7 points per game and Geno has averaged 273 yards and 2 TDs per game on the road. Also, you figure the Seahawks will have to pass to keep up.
Sleepers: Sam Darnold @ Lions, Daniel Jones @Vikings, Kenny Pickett vs Raiders
Sit: Dak Prescott vs Eagles
The Eagles are the second-best team against the QB, only allowing 13.8 points per game and only allowing 199.9 yards per game. Dak has had mediocre success in Philadelphia with 209 yards and 1.4 TDs.
Sit: Taylor Heinicke @ 49ers
Even though it feels like Heinicke has done well, his fantasy numbers have been QB3 level. He’s only averaging 13 points per game on the season, good for 30th. Now he travels to San Francisco to take on the 49ers who have basically shut down all the other QBs this season, only allowing 13.8 points per game.
Start: Derrick Henry vs Texans
Start all your RBs against the Texans but especially Derick Henry. Earlier this season, he put up 219 yards and 2 TDs. Every game against the Texans since 2019, Henry has averaged over 200 yards and 2 TDs. This season the Texans are allowing 28.3 fantasy points per game to the RB and 141 yards per game. No matter what happens, get Henry in your lineup.
Start: Isiah Pacheco vs Seahawks
The Seahawks can’t stop the run, they are allowing 26.4 Fantasy Points per Game this season to the RB. Pacheco has become the lead back on this team and he has scored double digit fantasy points every week since week 11.
Sleeper: Zach Moss vs Chargers, Wilson/Mostert vs Packers, Williams/Swift @ Panthers.
Sit: Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson @ 49ers
Sit your RBs versus the 49ers. I am recommending you sit both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson against the best run defense in the league. They are only giving up 13.2 fantasy points per game to the RB position. I would find another RB to start this week.
Sit: Joe Mixon vs Patriots
I think I would sit Mixon against the Patriots. The Bengals are a pass first team and they won’t be worried about Mixon stats more that getting a win in NE. So not only will they probably not run the ball much but when they do run the ball, Mixon will run into a brick wall. Look for another option over Mixon.
Start: DJ Moore vs Lions
Start your WRs versus the Lions. They are giving up 33.3 points per game to the WR position. Moore has had over 18 points in 2 of the past 3 games and he has a connection with QB Sam Darnold. Averaging 11 points per game, Moore has still been a Flex option every week.
Start: Darius Slayton @ Vikings
Here we are again, picking on the Vikings. The Vikings cannot stop WRs, allowing 33.2 point per game to the WR. Slayton has averaged over 13 points per game all season. Give Slayton a shot if you need a WR.
Sleeper: Marquise Goodwin vs Chiefs, Demarcus Robinson vs Falcons, DJ Chark @ Panthers
Sit: All Titans WRs vs Texans
What a hot mess this has become. Rookie QB Malik Willis probably won’t throw the ball that much, not leaving a volume for Titans pass catchers. I believe this will be a run first game. Plus the Texans are good against the WR position, only allowing 22.6 points per game.
Sit: Amari Cooper/Donavon Peoples-Jones vs Saints
This game has negative game script towards the WR. The weather will be crappy with sustained 20-30 mph winds. The Saints are only allowing 26.5 points to the WR position. I’d try to avoid this dynamic duo.
Start: Pat Freiermuth vs Raiders
Pat Freiermuth is a favorite target of Kenny Pickett who is starting this week after missing last week with a concussion. The Raiders are allowing over 10 points per game versus the TE. You can trust Freiermuth for 10-12 points, this week
Sleeper: Cade Otten vs Cardinals, Robert Tonyan @ Dolphins, Hayden Hurst @ Patriots
Sit: David Njoku vs Saints
The Saints are only allowing 6.2 points per game to the TE position. This is a bad weather game and I expect it to be a low scoring game with lot’s of running.
Thank you for reading my Start/Sit Column. Good luck in Week 16. You can find this and the rest of my work over at FantasyHolics on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/FantasyHolics
An Air Force veteran, Jeremiah Orcutt is from Hillsboro. You can find the rest of his work year round on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/FantasyHolics.