Wilmington’s heartbreaking 29-28 loss to Clinton-Massie didn’t eliminate them from the Region 10 playoff picture, but there are certain things that have to happen next Friday night for the Hurricane to have a chance.
First and foremost, they must defeat Chillicothe. If they do, I project they will finish around 17.3.
At that total, per Joe Eitel’s site, there are four teams they almost certainly cannot catch: Wapakoneta, Tippecanoe, Trotwood-Madison and New Richmond.
Of the rest of the teams near them in the playoffs, Celina defeated Shawnee Friday. They have 2-7 Kenton next week. A win in that game puts them at 19.3, which puts them ahead of Wilmington.
St. Mary’s Memorial could also finish ahead of Wilmington, but to do so, they’d have to defeat 6-3 Ottawa-Glandorf, which is not a guarantee. If they win, they’ll be ahead of Wilmington as well.
Belmont has one game left against Dunbar. If they win, they will finish ahead of Wilmington. If they lose, they will likely finish behind Wilmington, although it could come down to a handful of games to be sure.
Piqua lost to 6-3 Sidney Friday. A win next Friday only puts them at around 16.15, so they should finish behind Wilmington.
There are two other teams that can finish ahead of Wilmington. Goshen plays 6-3 Western Brown. A win for the Warriors would likely put them ahead of Wilmington.
Also, Mount Healthy is surging at the last minute. They knocked off 7-2 Edgewood Friday, 50-14. If they defeat 6-3 Northwest next Friday, they are in.
So, a quick summary:
• Wapakoneta, Tippecanoe, Trotwood-Madison and New Richmond will all finish ahead of Wilmington
• Celina will likely finish ahead with a win over 2-7 Kenton.
• Belmont will finish ahead with a win over Dunbar.
• St. Mary’s Memorial, Goshen and Mount Healthy all have tough week 10 games, but would finish ahead with victories.
• Piqua has an outside shot of finishing ahead of Wilmington, but would need a win and some help.
So the road isn’t impossible for Wilmington, but it certainly got a lot tougher after Friday night. We’ll check the exact number later in the week.
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